Sell and rent houses? Real estate loses confidence at the end of 2025

Housing costs continue to rise in Portugal, with house sale prices reaching record growth levels. However, there is no expectation of wage increases of the same magnitude, mortgage rates tend to stabilize, the Portuguese are losing purchasing power, and economic growth has slowed down. All this context is affecting the outlook of real estate professionals, who are losing confidence in the sales and rental markets as 2025 comes to an end.

This is exactly what the latest Real Estate Sector Sensitivity Index (ISSI), prepared by idealista based on a survey of real estate agents, reveals. Although they remain more optimistic about the buying and selling market than about the residential rental market for the end of the year, these professionals are now showing less confidence in both markets than they did at the beginning of 2025. Let’s break it down.

In the home sales market, real estate agents’ confidence is higher, standing at 72.4 points in the fourth quarter on a scale of 0 to 100. However, there has been a clear drop since the beginning of the year, when the index stood at 74.7 points. Expectations for the rental market remain lower and have also fallen proportionally: from 57.3 points at the start of the year to 55.5 points by the end of 2025, according to the ISSI.

There are several factors that can help explain this drop in confidence among real estate agents in Portugal’s housing market. One is the increase in house prices recorded throughout the year, which reached record highs for properties on sale. In addition, no major changes are expected in interest rates for new mortgages, with the Euribor hovering around 2% in recent months. Meanwhile, government support for young people buying homes (such as IMT exemption and public guarantees) as well as rent support measures are expected to remain in place. On the other hand, the economy is growing at a slightly slower pace than anticipated.

Real Estate Sector Sensitivity Index (ISSI)

Scale from 0 to 100


1Q2024	2Q2024	3Q2024	4Q2024	1Q2025	2Q2025	3Q2025	4Q2025

40	45	50	55	60	65	70	75

ISSI Rentals 4Q2025: 55.5
ISSI Sales: 72.4
ISSI Rentals: 55.5

Analysis of real estate agents’ confidence and projections for the sales and rental markets
Source: idealista – Created with Datawrapper

Home sales outlook remains positive – but cooled since the beginning of the year

Most real estate professionals surveyed by idealista still believe they will sell more homes by the end of 2025 (65.5% of respondents). However, this number is lower than at the start of the year, when 71.1% expected to close more deals.

There was also a decline in expectations regarding the acquisition of homes to sell. The proportion of agents expecting to secure more listings fell from 67.5% at the beginning of 2025 to 63.2% at the end of the year, according to the index.

Furthermore, fewer professionals now believe that sale prices will remain stable (45.6%) compared to the first three months of the year (53.3%) — although this remains the most common view. Conversely, the possibility of price fluctuations, whether upward or downward, has gained ground. Even so, new price increases are expected by 4 out of 10 respondents.

Home sales: how the market is expected to evolve by the end of the year

Expectations of real estate agents for Q4 2025

	Will rise	Will remain stable	Will fall	Don’t know / no answer
House prices	40.9%	45.6%	7.0%	—
Home sales	65.5%	22.2%	9.4%	—
Listings	63.1%	24.6%	8.8%	—

Source: idealista – Created with Datawrapper

Rentals expected to stabilize by the end of the year

The sense of stability in the rental market in Portugal appears to be here to stay, both in terms of contracts and listings, as well as rent price evolution, according to the ISSI.

There is now a greater proportion of real estate agents who say that the number of rented homes will remain the same (33.9%) compared to the beginning of the year (32.9%). There are also more professionals admitting that listings will continue at the same pace (34.5%) compared with the first quarter (30.9%).

On the other hand, the share of agents expecting to rent out or list more homes by the end of the year has fallen to 22.8% and 22.2%, respectively. And a significant portion of professionals admit they will not be able to place more homes on the market (20%) or rent more properties (21.1%).

As for prices, almost half of the experts still believe that rents will remain stable until the end of the year – but that number has decreased (47.4%) compared with the first quarter (51.6%). Rent increases are now expected by 30 out of 100 respondents, making it a less widely accepted hypothesis.

Renting homes: how the market is expected to evolve by the end of the year